 taking away millions of jobs in the near future are growing deeper and deeper, there still seems to be some hope. In fact, looking back at the history of Microsoft Excel in itself offers a glimmer of hope for the workforce.){kind=link}
At a time when the fears regarding AI (artificial intelligence) taking away millions of jobs in the near future are growing deeper and deeper, there still seems to be some hope. In fact, looking back at the history of inventions such as ATMs and Microsoft Excel itself offers a glimmer of hope for the workforce.
Throughout history, technology has transformed work in multiple ways, impacting the labour market in the process. In a big research report published recently, banking giant Morgan Stanley compared the rise of AI with past periods of technological innovation.
And its findings offer reasons for optimism.
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When Microsoft Excel Was Introduced
Microsoft
Take the history of spreadsheets as an example. They first emerged in the late 1970s, with the adoption of this new way of bookkeeping accelerating with the introduction of Microsoft Excel in the year 1985.
Here’s what banking giant Morgan Stanley said about its impact on jobs: “As adoption of this technology grew rapidly throughout the 1980s, especially after the introduction of Microsoft Excel in 1987, we saw a reduction in the number of Americans working as bookkeepers and accounting/auditing clerks (from ~2 million in 1987 to just above 1.5 million by 2000), but we also saw a significant increase in Americans employed as accountants/auditors (rising from ~1.3 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000) and management analysts & financial managers (from ~0.6 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000)”, as per the Business Insider report.
In other words, any decline in one type of job was more than offset by the creation of new, adjacent jobs.
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What Impact Have ATMs Had On Jobs?
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Something similar happened with the introduction of ATMs, which was predicted to put an end to the job of the bank teller. Instead, the ATMs made it cheaper to operate a branch, while the demand for bank branches increased, creating even more jobs for tellers than before.
Here’s what Morgan Stanley said about that “During many prior periods of technological innovation, there have been predictions of tremendous job losses, and broadly, what we have seen is the opposite, driven by increased productivity, lower prices, and also entirely new products and services.”
It’s important to note here that these numbers show the total number of people employed. It’s absolutely the case that someone might lose their job as a bookkeeper and not be able to retrain or get another job as an accountant or financial manager. And if you’re that bookkeeper, it’s a cold comfort that there’s growth in professions that aren’t available to you.
That is absolutely key to helping those who do face disruption develop new skills.
How AI Disruption Can Impact Jobs
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AI labour disruptions could herald unprecedented demand for reskilling. While private-public partnerships can mitigate AI labour disruptions, the extent of these disruptions will likely require a significant ramping up in capacity to retrain large numbers of US workers, as per the report.
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